London’s super-prime property market slumps to five-year low

There was a 25% drop in £15m-plus property deals in London in 2024, as tax hikes, non-dom changes and political uncertainty deterred billionaire buyers, according to Beauchamp Estates.

The estate agency reports that there was a 34% drop, by value of property sold, with London’s super-prime residential property market contracting by almost £445m last year, hitting a five-year low.

The agency says that the super-prime market disrupted by a combination of stamp duty rises, changes to the non-dom regime, the UK general election and the new Labour government.

There were 40 sales for luxury properties priced over £15m in 2024 (£856.5m of sales in total), compared to 54 sales in 2023 (worth £1.3bn)

During 2024 there were 10 sales of super-luxury new-build London apartments priced over £15m sold, worth £212.7m, compared to 19 sales worth £385m in 2023.

The apartments sold during 2024 averaged 4,260 sqft in size, each costing an average of £4,766 per sqft (the premium price underlining their new build status).

In 2023 the apartments sold were larger at 5,810 sqft, averaging £4,306 per sqft in value.

Beauchamp Estates say that the drop in apartment sales during 2024 was due to a combination of a current lack of supply of new build homes in favoured addresses such as Mayfair and the “stop, start” nature of the London sales market during 2024 generated by Stamp Duty rises, the General Election, the Autumn Budget and announced changes to the non-dom tax regime

The number of houses priced over £15m sold in 2024 fell by almost 15% with 30 sold (£643.8m of sales), compared to 35 sold in 2023 (worth £925m).

The average size of £15m-plus house sold in 2024 was 8,382 sqft in size, almost 445 sqft smaller than the equivalent 2023 figure

Beauchamp Estates reveal that of the 40 deals 26 were for homes valued between £15m and £25m and 14 were for homes valued above £25m, including two sold for £60m.

Unlike the previous four years, during 2024 no homes in London were sold for values above £100m.

Beauchamp Estates say around 75% of all £15m-plus deals during 2024 were cash purchases, up from 70% in 2023 and 60% in 2022

During 2024 American buyers accounted for 25% of all super-prime sales, up from 18% in 2023, the largest buyer group by country of origin, followed by buyers from the Middle East, who accounted for 20% of all sales, up from 18%

The proportion of super-prime sales to buyers from the UK fell from 12% to 10% between 2023 and 2024, likewise for buyers from Eastern Europe (13% to 8%), the dramatic drop due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Western European buyers (6% to 5%) and buyers from India/South Asia (23% to 20%). Only buyers from China and Hong Kong grew in number, up from 10% to 12%

Beauchamp Estates highlight that Mayfair is now the “address of choice” in London for the world’s super-rich, with American, Middle East and Indian/South Asian buyers drawn to the fashionable restaurants of Mount Street, the boutiques of Bond Street and the new luxury apartment buildings

Looking at how London’s super-prime residential market will perform in 2025 Beauchamp Estates forecast that for properties priced above £15 million values for new and newly refurbished homes in Mayfair will rise by 1% or 2%, whilst in markets such as Knightsbridge, Belgravia and Hampstead, especially for second-hand homes that require refurbishment, prices are likely to soften by between -2% to -4%

The market in 2025 will be driven by buyers from the United States and Middle East, in particular purchasers from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

Jeremy Gee, managing director of Beauchamp Estates, said: “During 2024 American and Middle East buyers accounted for almost 50% of super-prime sales across the London’s most prestigious addresses. Mayfair was the top performing trophy home address in the capital during 2024, favoured by wealthy buyers from the Middle East, America and India. Chelsea and Notting Hill, both popular with American buyers, also performed extremely well. Stamp Duty, non-dom changes, the election and new Labour government have disrupted the sales market.

“Over the next four years the wave of American buyers into London looks set to increase further. Last time Donald Trump was in power we saw a significant 20% upturn in wealthy Democrats buying £15m-plus homes in London to live out the first Trump administration. Since June 2024 onwards we noticed a 30% rise in overseas clients enquiring about suitable homes in the capital that they could purchase, and the largest group of buyers have been Americans.”

Paul Finch, director and head of new homes at Beauchamp Estates, added: “A key reason for this year’s significant upturn in American and Middle East buyers in London is the exchange rate advantage that Americans and Middle East buyers benefit from using dollars to buy homes in the UK capital. Back in 2016 American buyers effectively benefitted from a 7% price discount due to the strength of the US dollar against the pound. In 2024 this has grown to an 18% price discount. The exchange rate benefit is similar for Middle East buyers, since the Qatari and Saudi Riyal and UAE Dirham shadow the US dollar, so Gulf buyers have also seen their buying power dramatically increase due to exchange rate shifts.”